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Betting Odds

KC -3/ TB +3
Chiefs -162/Bucs +142
56un -112

As of press time, the total for the Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl game is a robust 56 points. Incidentally, only three Super Bowls have ever featured a higher total. There was the Saints-Colts Super Bowl of a decade ago with a 57-point total that went under with the Saints winning, 31-17. Another high-point total Super Bowl went over several seasons ago, back in that Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, when they eclipsed the 57-point total in a 34-28 game. But two Bowls back, the Patriots-Rams game (57.5 points) ended up only 13-3. Either way, Super Bowl LV's total is a tough bet where one might feel torn, with viable cases being able to be made for both the 'over” and the under.” Let's try to get on the right side!

Is Offense Too Obvious?

In other words, how much betting success lies in making the obvious observation? You have a pair of teams that have a ton of offense. They are each led by two of the biggest names in the business with last season's Super Bowl MVP in Patrick Mahomes and the most illustrious postseason QB of all-time in Tom Brady. Naturally, that would incline people to picture a high-scoring game, and 'over' would be the default knee-jerk reaction.

In all truth—that might not be the wrong pick. Both teams run deep in the category of offensive firepower, and therefore, a touchdown per quarter scoring pace is hardly out of the question. Both defenses certainly have their moments and make a lot of plays but are by no means impenetrable. Still, a 'damn the torpedoes' approach on the 'over' rings of a play a casual fan would make, and this isn't a time of the year where bookies generally pay off moves generated by non-exclusive insight such as simply noting that these teams have a lot of offense.

More Picks: Get David's top Super Bowl player bets to cash in on >>>

Obstacles to an 'Over' Pick

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Again, no one should register any shock if these teams turn it loose and surpass this total early in the fourth quarter. That outcome is definitely on the table. At the same time, a 56-point total isn't always going to be a cinch. It's going to require both teams to have a lot of offense. A 45-10 win isn't going to cut it. Both teams have to carry that load. And while it looks to be a competitive game with two offensively-inclined teams, Super Bowls often don't follow the script.

As previous Super Bowl games have taught us, we often picture a 60-minute explosion, only to find there to be a lot of lulls. The game can start off, and everybody is tight. A few punts, a turnover in the red-zone, and next thing you know, it's 3-0 early in the second quarter, and your 'over' 56 points bet is in massive peril. The same thing can happen in the middle of either half, where untimely penalties on big plays, a pick here, a fumble there, or a few drives going deep and ending in field goals really spoil things for you.

Defensive Playmaking

Cumulatively, the overall defense in this game might just be average. For all the big-name players on both defenses, the results have been mixed this season from a stoutness standpoint. The uneven work of Tampa's corners this season would tend to raise the alarm against Mahomes and his vertical weaponry. And with the Chiefs being either average or below average in most major defensive areas, that would seem to be music to Tom Brady's ears.

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It's easy, however, to let certain stats tell a story about two defenses that have actually played a big role in getting their respective teams to this spot. Both of these defensive units are among the most adept at getting turnovers. The Bucs have seven of them in this postseason, with Sean Murphy-Bunting having three picks. The Chiefs have a couple picks this postseason, and with ball-hawks like Tyrann Mathieu, Daniel Sorensen, and L'Jarius Sneed, along with Brady having three picks in his last game, that possibility also looms. And all of it has a way of stifling offense in a major way.

This season, the Chiefs have won a slew of tight games. The Bucs' defense perhaps had a wider range, but were better overall from a stoutness standpoint. For the most part, these defenses are able to dial up the right recipe when the situation is at its most dire. The Bucs' front-seven can apply a mean pass-rush. The Chiefs' is more-sporadic, but their best players tend to step up in the game's biggest moments.

On paper, a pick on the “under” may seem counterintuitive, with the biggest offensive sparkplug in the sport in Mahomes taking on the best big-game QB of all-time in Brady. Something just tells me the game will be slightly more subdued than what some are envisioning. For what it's worth, this pair of quarterbacks have gone under seven times in ten combined Super Bowl appearances. I picture enough turnovers, red-zone stoppages, untimely penalties, and overall defensive resistance to make getting to 56 points an uphill battle in this game.

I'm betting that the Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl game goes “under” 56 points.
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NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.

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The Tampa Bay Bucs are the Super Bowl LV Champions! Lead by legendary quarterback Tom Brady and a dominating defensive front, the Bucs took control early and never let Kansas City in the game. Both teams are at the top of the list again this year, with the Chiefs expected to return to the big game and win it this time. These odds will change throughout the season, so be sure to check back often to see how the draft and each week’s results impact the odds.

NFL Futures: Odds to Win Super Bowl 55 (LV)

What Were the Vegas Odds on the Most Recent Super Bowl?

The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.

Super Bowl LV Opening Betting Line

The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.

Opening Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5 -110 / Bucs +3.5 -110
Opening Total: Over/Under 57.5 -110
Opening Moneyline: Chiefs -170 / Bucs +150

Current Vegas Odds

For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace. Almost every book has settled into the Chiefs -3 with -120 juice on that side. There are some slight differences in the total at spots like FanDuel, who have posted it at 55.5, where the consensus is 56.

Caesar’s Palace (consensus): Chiefs -3 -120
Consensus Over/Under: 56 -110
Moneyline: Bucs +145 / Chiefs -165

Current Offshore Odds

You won’t find much more variety at offshore books right now, either. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3.5 points, which we could still see by game time.

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Pinnacle: Chiefs -3 -106 / Bucs +3 -104 Over 56 -103/Under 56 -108
5Dimes: Chiefs -3 -115 / Bucs +3 -105 Under 56 -110
Bovada: Chiefs -3 -115 / Bucs +3 -105 Over 56 -110
Moneyline (consensus): Chiefs -160 / Bucs +140

1st Half Spread & Total

First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.

1st Half Spread: Chiefs -2.5 -105 / Bucs +2.5 -115
1st Half Total: Over 27.5 -105/ Under 27.5 -115
1st Half Moneyline: Chiefs -150/ Bucs +130

Super Bowl Props

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By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.

Will a non-quarterback throw a touchdown?
Yes (+1450)
No (-1900)

What will happen to the price of Bitcoin (BTC) During the Super Bowl?

Goes Up (-160)
Goes Down (+120)

Will there be a flea flicker attempted by either team?

Yes (+175)
No (-260)

Will any player propose to his girlfriend on the field after the game?

Yes (+550)
No (-1000)