Place Betting Methods
How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living
- Before you use this 5-step horse betting method you will need to assemble a few items. A pencil or pen will be needed and you might also want to have a pad of scratch paper available. The most important thing you will need is a current copy of the Daily Racing Form with past performances for the race card you wish to handicap.
- The initial bet for each system was $100 (except for the bet everything method, which initially bet $1000). Each system started with a $1000 balance, and the simulation ran for each method until the 500th bet or until their balance was zero). The five betting systems are explained below: Betting Strategy A: Bet It All, Every Time.
- Single place bet It is difficult to do a lot of place betting and make a profit. I think most punters place betting in an eight race card will invariably finish “in the red”. However, place betting is a great way to make some money, shall we call it “wages”, especially when dealing with consistent horses.
How to Place a Bet. With legalized sports betting spreading across America, sports bettors have never had more options to take advantage of. To see if sports betting is legal where you live, check out our state-by-state tracker. Secrets Tip – Never bet the Big 6 or Big 8 located at the corners of the table. They carry a 9.09% House Edge versus Place Betting the same numbers for a 1.52% House Edge. All examples include betting both the (6) and (8) on a $10 minimum craps table. 6 & 8 Collect and Press. Place Bet both the (6) and (8) for $12 each (Total $24).
The best way to profit from place betting is to compound the returns from a betting system with a very high strike rate (around 90%). This place betting system is perfect for this and can be easily applied with just a basic form guide (no computer required).
Discover the secrets to turning $15 very safely into $157.28 by putting 5 highly secure place bets on favourites. Guaranteed Horse Betting Profits - even if you've never placed a bet before in your life!'I made $6,854 from $17 - and now everyone (including my boss) is begging me to reveal my secret! Please hide your website' - Comrie Graham, Sydney.
Click here to order or get more details
Note: The comments referred to above have been sourced from the vendors web site (which can be referred to via the above link for more information).
Not only does the above place betting eBook provide you with a great betting system but it is also a great introduction to betting. Below is a list of what is covered:
- Chapter One: Tells you how to read form guides, explains the different bet types and discusses the psychology of betting.
- Chapter Two: Discuses betting markets and introduces the main factors that affect your chances of wining.
- Chapter Three: Explains in detail the betting system rules for the How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living method and concludes with over 5 pages on staking.
Finally there is a bonus chapter on how to use the place bet selections to make trifecta bets!
While the above place betting system does not require the use of a computer, we have been able to analyse the method in our Bet Selector Ultimate software. In doing so we have found that it works very well on the more popular Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings where the strike rate last year (2012) was 89%. If you want to check this betting system out for yourself then please read the following notes in conjunction with Chapter 3 of the eBook:
- Substantial Gap Rule: In regards to this rule (page 20), we have found a figure of 3.0 works well.
- Track Condition Rule: Our suggestion is to replace this rule (Rule 5, page 21) by the modification mentioned in the last sentence of Variation 3 (page 22).
This betting system works so well that you can even increase betting activity without any reduction in strike rate by relaxing some of the rules a little (eg rules 1, 2 and 6) . Note this is because of the superior results on Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings but please note if you wish to apply the method to other days of the week or to non-metrops you should be more careful about relaxing any of the rules (indeed you may find you need to tighten some).
Bonus Rule: The betting systems strike rate can be increased by around 4% if the horse is also required to be favorite in the early market (as sourced from Bet Selector or your Friday newspaper form guide).
Place Betting Methods Against
A History of Place Betting Systems
Back in the early 90s we devised a much more complicated place betting system that produced similar results to the above method. It used last minute win tote approximates to predict first, second and third place probabilities and in turn the total predicted place chances - it then used these to target place bets predicted to have at least an 80% chance and at least 10% over the odds. Quite often this betting system identified horses predicted to be as short as $1.05 yet paying $1.20 or more - which was a massive overlay in percentage terms. This method was successful because punters shy away from short priced dividends and not surprisingly it was independently reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'matching claimed strike rates with consistent profits emerging'. The How to Place Bet on Favorites betting system above works for the same reasons but is now our recommended approach to place betting as it is so much easier to apply.
Note: Place betting systems by definition only collect when a runner finishes first, second or third in fields of 8 or more runners (or 7 in the event of a late scratching). In fields of 5, 6 or 7 (or 4 in the event of a late scratching) place dividends are only paid for first and second while with 4 or less starters no place dividends are paid. This applies in most parts of the world but in North America a bet that pays up to third place is called a 'show' bet while a 'place' bet only pays for first and second.
Our older method of calculating place probabilities was part of our Place Odds Calculator software first released for $1,995 in 1995. It was reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'an exciting product' and 'capable of making accurate assessments of reasonably precise and profitable place odds' - it is no longer available as a separate program but the same calculations are now incorporated in the Tote Pro part of our Bet Selector Gold software which is now free via the instructions below and includes a free copy of our Place Odds and Trifecta Report that describes the mathematics in more detail.
Place Betting Methods Definition
Introduction to Horse Racing
Benchmarker Handicapper
Introduction to Dutch Betting
The Edge
We all want to be competitive in everything we do. And no more so that with punting on horse racing.
Success in punting on horses, in fact most things reduces down to an information war - the people with the best information make the smart moves.
Books have been and still are the best source of general information, and this applies at least as much in the art of racehorse selection and staking as in any other field.
Author Paul Segar has produced textbooks which cover all aspects of punting. The books alone stand as a complete reference but also provide 'food for thought'. You can develop / improve your own ideas as well as learn some new techniques.
Each book is written in plain English with plenty of practical examples in each chapter. Browse the contents of each book or email for further information, if required.
Improve your punting knowledge today - buy one or all of these books.
Read the books but want more? It's time to do a course.
The Pureform Introduction Course uses a computer program to show you how and when to bet and how to do it successfully. Check out the details
The Benchmark Handicapper Course continues from the Introduction Course and gives you further weapons to apply when making quality value selections. More...
The Introduction to Dutch Betting using the Ratings Calculator Course gives you an introduction to betting using the Ratings Calculator computer software. More...
This article by Paul Segar and brought to you by Pureform looks at win, place and each way betting in general and also some approaches notably the Dutch book staking method.
| Introduction |
| Win Bet Types |
| Strike Rate and Profit on Turnover |
| Place Bet Types |
| The Dutch Book |
| Each Way Betting |
| Recommended Reading |
Introduction
Win betting has been and probably will always be the backbone of betting on horse, harness and greyhound racing. Win betting will no doubt remain the major investment area in racing despite many modern and exciting exotic bet types. It's the fundamental approach. Place betting while not as popular as win betting will also remain a fundamental and popular bet type.
Win betting is selecting one or more competitors to win a nominated event. Assuming the winner is selected, the return is paid for a $1 dividend. The dividend paid will vary depending on many factors but includes the ‘profit’ along with the $1 basic stake.
Place betting is selecting one or more runner to finish either first, second or third in a nominated race (in events with 8 or more runners). The dividend paid on place betting is typically one quarter or less of the corresponding win odds.
A simple example will illustrate these points.
Good old horse ‘A’ started in a race and was lucky enough to win. The TAB price for this horse was $4.20 for the win and $1.80 for the place.
$20 bet to win on horse A would return: |
20 x 4.2 = $84 |
Profit would therefore be $84 - $20 = $64. |
Another $20 bet for the place on horse ‘A’ would return: |
20 x 1.8 = $36 |
Profit is $36 - $20 = $16 |
Dividends return the profit plus the initial stake. Profit is the additional money earned by a successful wager and does not include the bet.
Most of these comments are well-known by everyone.
Win Bet Types
There are many different win punting approaches . Here are a few possibilities:
Single win bet
Multiple win bets
Single win bet
A single win bet is a very popular wager. Simply bet on one runner to win. Some general win betting comments:
Focus on smaller fields where possible.
Modern horse racing has generally smaller fields but some capacity events are scheduled occasionally. Trying to pick one horse to win in a field of 17 runners is a tough assignment at any time.
Assess all runners before betting.
Make sure you have done your 'homework' on all the runners before betting. The winner will quite often 'jump off the page' if studied closely.
Avoid races with uncertainty.
All races have uncertainty otherwise no racing but some events have greater uncertainty. Clearly first starters cannot be properly rated before a race. Be careful in races with more than 50% first starters. Similarly avoid races on unusual track conditions.
Avoid very short priced favourites.
Consider your strike rate/profit on turnover considered later in this article. Do not bet simply for the sake of betting. This ties into the next point. Often there is nothing clear as a winning chance. Net result: losses - for no reason.
Only support runners that genuinely have a winning chance
Maintain records of your confidence level. Keep a note of how often you select the winner when confident as opposed to how often you select a winner when unsure. Chances are your opinion has some value so support your top selections and avoid 'non' bets.
Multiple win bets
Multiple win betting, which leads to the Dutch book approach (discussed later) applies in races with a number of clear solid chances. What are clear chances?
In some races, there is no clear likely winner with many possible chances (take one runner for the place?). Some races have one major chance (perhaps a single win bet) and no others while some races have 3 or perhaps 4 competitors, one of which will clearly win the race. The last example is perfect for multiple win betting. This topic is continued a little later...
Strike Rate and Profit on Turnover
Strike Rate and Profit on Turnover are two important terms for any punter especially when talking win betting but these terms are crucial factors in most gambling.
Your win bet strike rate is the actual win percentage of bets. Your profit (loss) on turnover is the profit or loss made from betting on these selections. Both numbers are important.
Most people know that around 30% of favourites win. A strike rate of 40% therefore sounds great but if profit on turnover is negative then this impressive number means very little. Similarly, a strike rate of 5% with 20% profit on turnover probably indicates a small number of long priced winners. Not an easy task to maintain.
Consider the following results (using a $10 win bet):
| Runner | Result | Stake | Dividend | Return | Profit | Turnover | Overall |
| Flying Anita | Won | $10 | $1.50 | 15 | $5 | $10 | $5 |
| Gorgeous Gal | 4th | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $20 | -$5 |
| Number One Pony | 3rd | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $30 | -$15 |
| Fast Neddy | Won | $10 | $2.20 | 22 | $12 | $40 | -$3 |
| Million Dollar Bootstrap | unpl | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $50 | -$13 |
| Fred The Fab | unpl | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $60 | -$23 |
| Hola Hola Hola | Won | $10 | $2.15 | 21.50 | $11.5 | $70 | -$11.5 |
| Imaginational | Won | $10 | $2.25 | 22.50 | $12.5 | $80 | +$1 |
| Fastest Filly Flying | unpl | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $90 | -$9 |
| Agnostic Agony | unpl | $10 | $0.00 | 0 | -$10 | $100 | -$19 |
10 bets Strike Rate 40% Profit on turnover -19%
There were 4 winners out of ten bets giving a strike rate of 40% so slightly better than the long term favourite’s average. But the profit on turnover (POT) was a disappointing -19%. Clearly picking a few short priced winners is not enough - try to focus on slightly longer priced runners.
Aim to keep both the strike rate and POT in the positive and modify your approach to accomplish this. A few ways to assist in this is to record each bet, then calculate the strike rate and POT at the end of each meeting/day. Focussing on clear winning chances will improve both factors (rather than just having a 'speckie' or a bet simply to have a bet).
Place Bets
Single place bet
It is difficult to do a lot of place betting and make a profit. I think most punters place betting in an eight race card will invariably finish “in the red”. However, place betting is a great way to make some money, shall we call it “wages”, especially when dealing with consistent horses. Some runners in the correct race could only finish unplaced if they fell over. Often the odds are quite attractive.Place betting only applies in races with 5 or more runners. For fields of 5, 6 or 7 runners on the TAB only 2 place dividends are declared. For fields of 8 or more runners, 3 dividends are paid. For TAB betting, if late scratchings reduce a field to less than one of those key figures (less than 8 or less than 5 runners), place dividends will still be paid as if the field still retained the larger number of runners. So if an 8 horse field has a late scratching reducing the field to seven runners, the TAB will still pay 3 dividends even though there are only 7 actual runners.
Why place bet in fields of more than 14 runners? There is no 4th place dividend (which is paid in some countries in large fields) and often the odds are no better in larger fields. Generally avoid place betting in capacity fields.
When is it best to place bet? There are many situations where a place bet can be taken. One race type consists of the main chance but this chance does not seriously look the winner (perhaps from uncertainty surrounding the other runners). A place bet may be a better and more profitable option.
So $20 bet on good old horse A for the place and running in the first three and paying $1.80 would return: |
20 x 1.80 = $36 |
Profit of $36 - $20 = $18 |
Multiple place bets
Multiple place betting can be a useful punting approach where typically the two (or more) chances are at longer odds.
Example | Place Price |
Horse A | $2.50 |
Horse B | $3 |
Support both runners for the place and a profit is achieved if one (or more) runs a place. A great profit can be extracted if both place bets finish in the money. Runners can be supported with level stakes or by the Dutch Book approach (discussed shortly).
It is difficult enough to select one placegetter without selecting two. A roving banker trifecta may be more profitable if you can pick two placegetters. Taking two or more longer priced wagers for the place is a solid option.
The Dutch Book
The Dutch book is a tried-and-true method used for many for many years and is basically a reverse bookmaker approach. The aim is to back a number of different runners and no matter which runner wins (or places) the return is basically the same. Use TAB, bookmaker or your own odds for the calculations. The aim is to return the same amount regardless of which competitor is successful.
The odds to percentage table (displayed below) outlines various prices and odds converted into percentages. This table is the basis of the Dutch book. Each runner needs to have the percentage amount wagered on it according to its odds converted to percent. A higher percentage requires a greater bet amount and vice versa.
Example: Imagine these prices are available for three horses (but harness or greyhounds can use the same approach), that's right horses A, B and C, in an upcoming event:
Runner | Price |
Horse A | $3.50 |
Horse B | $10 |
Horse C | $12 |
Clearly betting $10 the win on each runner will result in a small profit if one wins ($10 on A will return $35, total outlay $30, so $5 profit). However, assuming you think the chances of the runners are represented by these prices, then clearly bet more money on the shorter priced runner(s). Use the odds to percentage table as shown here:
| Odds to Percentage | ||
| Price | Odds | Percent |
| $1.50 | 0.5 /1 | 67% |
| $1.70 | 0.7 /1 | 59% |
| $1.80 | 0.8 /1 | 56% |
| $1.90 | 0.9 /1 | 53% |
| $2.00 | 1.0 /1 | 50% |
| $2.20 | 1.2 /1 | 45% |
| $2.40 | 1.4 /1 | 42% |
| $2.50 | 1.5 /1 | 40% |
| $2.60 | 1.6 /1 | 38% |
| $2.70 | 1.7 /1 | 37% |
| $2.80 | 1.8 /1 | 36% |
| $2.90 | 1.9 /1 | 34% |
| $3.00 | 2.0 /1 | 33% |
| $3.10 | 2.1 /1 | 32% |
| $3.20 | 2.2 /1 | 31% |
| $3.30 | 2.3 /1 | 30% |
| $3.40 | 2.4 /1 | 29% |
| $3.50 | 2.5 /1 | 29% |
| $4.00 | 3.0 /1 | 25% |
| $4.50 | 3.5 /1 | 22% |
| $5.00 | 4.0 /1 | 20% |
| $6.00 | 5.0 /1 | 17% |
| $8.00 | 7.0 /1 | 13% |
| $10 | 9.0 /1 | 10% |
| $14 | 13 /1 | 7.1% |
| $20 | 19 /1 | 5.0% |
| $30 | 29 /1 | 3.3% |
| $50 | 49 /1 | 2.0% |
| $80 | 79 /1 | 1.3% |
| $200 | 199 /1 | 0.5% |
Prices converted to Percentage:
| Runner | Price | Percent |
| Horse A | $3.50 | 29% |
| Horse B | $10 | 10% |
| Horse C | $12 | 8% |
Total 47%
29% of the total amount to collect should be wagered on horse A, 10% on B and 8% on C for a total outlay of 47% of the total return.
| Bet to collect $100 | Odds | Stake |
| Horse A | $3.50 | $29 |
| Horse B | $10 | $10 |
| Horse C | $12 | $8 |
| Total | $47 |
If one horse wins and pays the above dividend, the return will be about $100, regardless of which horse is successful. Outlay $47, return $100. Profit $100-$47=$53 (approx).
The target amount, that is the amount bet to collect ($100 in this example) can be varied up or down accordingly.
Do you have to use odds from the TAB or other market makers? No, you can adjust the prices to suit your own punting or simply use any available prices.
For example, according to the TAB figures, Horse A is short priced at $3.50. However, this may not be the top pick according to your calculations. Change the market according to your own thinking. Horse A may be at best a $5 chance with Horse B more like a $6 chance and Horse C at $10.
Looking at the new figures:
| Bet to collect $100 | Odds | Stake |
| Horse A | $5 | 20% |
| Horse B | $6 | 17% |
| Horse C | $10 | 10% |
| Total 47% |
The total is still 47% but the prices have been adjusted to your thinking. In this example Horse A is now a “saver”.
“Saving” on a runner or series of runners is a great idea, assuming you can select runners better than the market figures. If Horse A wins the total return will only be $70 ($20 at $3.50 which is the actual available price) but as it was no longer the most fancied runner, this is a fair return. Chances are the saver does not win. Horse B's price is actually $10 so the collect with be $170. This is an example of overlay's betting.
Saving is one way to punt on a runner when it is not fully expected to win, but is still to be supported, just in case. Generally a not so highly fancied short priced favourite can be saved upon or the out of form long shot could be another saver. Eliminate the favourite totally if it has no chance.
Each Way
Each Way betting is basically placing the same stake on a runner for the win and the place, typically at fixed odds.
The advantage of the wager is that a place runner will return some or the entire overall stake. If the horse wins, then profit is made from the win stake as well as the place stake. Place odds when taken with a bookmaker should be calculated at one quarter of the win odds (except in a field of 5 to 7 runners where the odds are supposed to be calculated at one third of the win odds). Win only betting applies in fields of 4 or less runners.
Good old horse A back from the earlier wager with a TAB would return the amounts as mentioned.
$20 each way would return $84 + $36=$120
Profit $120 - $40 = $80
If horse A runs second or third:
Win bet return = $0 Total losses
Place bet return = $36
The each way bet returns $36 for a loss of $4.
One advantage of an each way bet is the stake is taken for both win and place. Is this a big advantage? Not really. Often, a skewed each way bet is more practical. That is more is wagered for the win or place depending on the race. Clearly when priced at $5 or higher, a placed runner will return at least the complete stake. So there is potential to increase the win or place stake and still make a profit from a placed runner. It all depends on how confident you are in predicting the result.
Win and Place 'Ramping'
Horse A is priced at $8 the win and $3 the place (on a TAB).
A $20 each way bet will return $60 if the horse runs second or third ($3 x $20) for a profit of $20.
This bet can be increased in two directions:
Increase the win bet if you are expecting a win (or betting for much higher potential profit) or increase the place bet if more confident of placing:
Win Bet 'Ramping'
$25 win horse wins returns 25 x 8= $200 (up $5)
$15 place horse places returns 15 x 3=$45 (small profit if 2nd or 3rd).
Maximum potential return: $245
Place Bet 'Ramping'
$15 win horse wins returns 15 x 8= $120 (down $5)
$25 place horse places returns 25 x 3=$75 (a higher profit if placing only). Maximum potential return: $195
An each way bet is a nice easy wager to take, but clearly the skewed each way bet can be a better approach.
Each way better should be limited to runners that perform consistently with prices below $10 offering the best price range. Little long term point taking an each way bet on a runner paying less than $3 win odds.
Taking a horse each way will return 62.5% (or five eighths) of the win only profit.
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The big question for many punters – is it worth taking an each way bet and getting a return from a placed runner (taking 62.5% of the full win profit if it wins) rather than getting no return from a placed runner and 100% of the win profit if it wins? I will leave you to ponder this long winded question…Recommended Reading